One of the leading models used to predict the catastrophe that the novel coronavirus is going to cause, including the number of people infected and number of deaths, has changed the number of predicted deaths due to COVID-19.
The highly cited University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 model was used by the White House to create a warning that, “best case scenario,” for the country was 100,000 – 200,000 deaths.
As of Friday, April 3rd, the IHME Model was projecting 93,531 total deaths in the US. On Sunday, just 2 days later, they revised it down to 81,766 deaths, then on Wednesday they lowered the total deaths again, down to 60,415, dropping more than 35% in less than a week. They also lowered the total number of hospital beds needed from 141,000 to 94,249 and cut the number of ICU beds by nearly 1/3 to under 20,000.
In the 2019-2020 flu season the CDC projects that 63,000 Americans died from influenza. This means that they are projecting less deaths from COVID-19 than the common flu.
Everything is still unfolding from the coronavirus but I for one am grateful that the numbers are not nearly as bad as originally thought in terms of illness. On the other hand we’ll have to see how much of our liberty is taken from us as a result of this.
As Benjiman Franklin once said “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.”